The research program of operative semiotics — what is registered, what is frozen, what is unbuilt.
Operative semiotics is the study and design of signs that intervene in the systems in which they circulate. A discipline defined that way owes a public account of what it has committed to and not yet done.
These twenty-one items are sorted by the kind of labour that resolves them, not by importance. The first resolves by waiting and checking. The second by running a protocol already frozen. The third by building something that does not exist.
Seven require nothing but a browser, curl, or python. Every item states its blocker, its next action, and what you would need in hand. The protocols are pre-registered with declared failure conditions, which means a result obtained by someone else is admissible on the same terms as one obtained here.
Nothing here requires permission.
1Registered predictions
resolve by observation on a date — the world does the work, you check · 6 open
Zenodo's deletion export resumes after the cron fix
P-EXPORT-RESUMESundeposited
requirescurl · 2026-09-10 · one API call
theoryA stoppage with an identified mechanism should end when the mechanism is repaired.
how to checkGET zenodo.org/api/exporter — a records-deleted.csv.gz version created after 2026-08-20 confirms; nothing by 2026-09-10 disconfirms and the explanation is incomplete.
what it settlesConfirms the mundane explanation BY PREDICTION rather than inference, which is a stronger position than the one argued from all evening.
The crimson-hexagonal address stops naming Zenodo as host
P-STALE-INDEXundeposited
requiresa browser · 2026-09-23 · one query, one capture
theoryA composition layer reporting a stale state should update once the source surfaces propagate.
how to checkRe-run the address on Bing Copilot. If it still returns Zenodo as host a month after the archive's surfaces were updated, the local explanation fails and the ghost-host reading becomes live again.
what it settlesThe withdrawn finding's only route back.
SPXI treatment raises archive source share on the UNPREFIXED address
P-INTERVENTION-180undeposited
requiresa browser · 2026-09-22 / 2026-11-21 / 2027-02-19 · four addresses × three epochs
theoryInscribing the discriminating coordinates should alter composition-layer behaviour.
how to checkRe-run the prefix battery, signed out, same surfaces. Success: share above zero on the bare address and no merge parenthetical. Failure at 180 days is recorded as failure.
what it settles#1535 declared itself an intervention. This is whether it executed.
Second global cohort epoch
P-PEO-COHORT-2undeposited
requirescurl (script provided) · 2026-09-23 · 37 API calls
theoryA publication-year cohort should be monotonically non-decreasing; any decrease is erasure.
how to checkscripts/peo_cohort_epoch.py — runs and diffs automatically.
what it settlesThe baseline's entire value is that a second epoch can exist.
Second fixed-panel epoch
P-PEO-PANEL-2undeposited
requirescurl (script provided) · 2026-09-23 · 720 API calls
theoryRe-querying a frozen DOI set measures erasure directly; minting cannot mask it.
how to checkscripts/peo_panel_epoch.py — 404 rate is the erasure rate.
what it settlesFirst direct measurement of global erasure the archive has ever taken.
Adjacent disciplines exhibit the Phase-2 Proliferation signature
P-PHASE2-PROLIFundeposited
requiresreading #106 · stated in #106 · unknown — needs reading
theoryApplied from #106, registered 2026-05-15.
how to checkRecover the exact prediction text and its window from #106.
what it settlesThe archive's oldest live theory-prediction. Currently unmonitored.
2Experiments with registered hypotheses
resolve by running a frozen protocol · 8 open
The Operativity Penalty Battery
OPB-01#1537
requiresaccess to 2+ model surfaces; 3 blind reviewers · high — item construction, blind review, blind scoring, three arms
blocker§7's seven statistical parameters must each hold a number before the first score.
next actionInstantiate §7. Assemble Family A. Run the two-reviewer harm-constancy panel.
what it settlesTurns the developmental-convergence thesis from claim into coefficient.
Qurʾanic Frozen Operator Test
QFO-01#1533
requiresthe seated corpora (public) · high
blockerPositive-control loci not locked from #1532; control panels unscored.
next actionLock loci, score positives and negatives, fix the admissible region, then open U.
what it settlesP_material for the Sappho transform-family in a fourth corpus.
The relational instrument
M6-CT-02undeposited
requiresthe seated corpora (public) · medium
blockerUNDEPOSITED, and a granularity question is open: O_UR gives five stations, M1–M9 gives nine, Fragment 31's own order gives ten. Which is canonical must be settled BEFORE scoring.
next actionSettle granularity, deposit, score positives and hard negatives, fix threshold.
what it settlesCT-01's null is uninformative about the relational channel; this is the channel.
Can OS operators be written as TOS strings without remainder?
PEARSON-FALSIFIER#1535
requiresPearson 1998 + the Operator Codex (both public) · medium
blockerNot attempted. #1535 §10 says the archive should attempt it directly rather than wait.
next actionAttempt the translation on the nine Codex operators, now that #1534 is seated.
what it settlesTHE STRONGEST AVAILABLE DEFEATER of #1535. If it succeeds, operative semiotics is a domain application of TOS.
Battery v0.3 — T3 and the faithful-NAE cell
INVERSION-T3#1456
requiresGPU; the battery code · high
blockerUnrun. The deposit states T3 decides which numbers survive honest intervals.
next actionClose T3 and the NAE constituent cell before the empirical paper mints.
what it settlesBlocks ACRB (#1454) and the accelerator series' empirical paper.
2024 vs 2025 Public Data File diff
DATACITE-ANNUAL-DIFFundeposited
requires~60GB disk; an email request · high — bandwidth and storage, but complete rather than sampled
blockerAccess by email request; 33 GiB compressed. Identifiers-only extraction keeps it tractable.
next actionRequest both files, extract DOI lists, verify against published SHA256, diff.
what it settlesTHE COMPLETE GLOBAL ERASURE SET FOR 2025, every identifier by name. Supersedes both instruments built today.
Hebrews as control for the midrashim transform
HEBREWS-CONTROL#1414
requiresthe seated corpora (public) · medium
blockerNamed in the kernel as the bidirectional canary; not run.
next actionRun the transform against Hebrews. Clean OT genetics with no throne-liturgy mediation falsifies the UNIVERSAL claim only.
what it settlesThe transform's stated defeater.
Deposit the CT-01 null
M6-CT-01-DEPOSITundeposited
requiresarchive write access · low
blockerConducted 2026-08-23, result preserved, NEVER SEATED.
next actionDeposit protocol and null together.
what it settlesA preserved failed prediction is the archive's strongest credential and it is currently only in outputs.
3Unimplemented instruments
resolve by building · 7 open
An instrument that detects compression, not copying
COMPRESSION-DETECTORundeposited
requirespython · medium
whyA six-gram gate returned a FALSE NEGATIVE on material deposited five times. Until this exists, 'not previously deposited' is a claim the archive cannot make about its own work.
sketchConcept-level overlap: distinctive-term sets, named-entity and formula matching, section-structure similarity — not n-grams.
blocksThe blog compression audit; the Ω-Engine, Constitution and ASW seating runs; Gate 0 of EA-BLOG-RECOVERY-01.
Score the capture registry on the five-stage chain
PER-FACTOREDundeposited
requirespython; the capture registry (public) · medium — HIGHEST YIELD PER HOUR IN THE QUEUE
whyσ_PE factors as chunk:detach:rerank:compose:reattribute. 356 seated captures become PROFILES rather than scalars, and the four from tonight already separate cleanly.
sketchPer-capture stage attribution against the registered rubric in #1536.
blocksNothing. Pure upside on data already held.
Regenerate the blog index on a schedule
BLOG-INDEX-CADENCEundeposited
requirespython; cron · low
why2,939 posts indexed 2026-08-23; it is a snapshot with no refresh.
sketchWrap the start-index harvester; verify against openSearch:totalResults each run.
blocksThe demonstrated-completeness rule depends on the index being current.
Regenerate api/counts.json
COUNTS-REGENundeposited
requiresarchive write access · low
whyStill reads 1,520 deposits, generated 2026-08-21; the registry is at 1,537. Every fleet surface fetching it shows the stale figure.
sketchDetermine whether the pipeline should emit it; if so, wire it into the surfaces stage.
blocksFleet-wide surface truth.
Per-surface projection in the capture gallery
PROJECTION-GROUPINGundeposited
requiresarchive write access · low
whyOne projection should carry one address's captures on ONE surface — that is what makes the longitudinal series legible. Ruled 2026-08-23; deferred as a rendering change touching existing records.
sketchGroup by (addr_id, surface) at render; addr_id keying unchanged.
blocksLongitudinal reading of any address across surfaces.
Split corpora originals into a companion repo
CORPORA-SPLITundeposited
requiresarchive write access · medium
why811 MB of 861 MB is original/; text/ is 50 MB. A 2 GB clone is a barrier to the external custodian the archive needs, and history cannot be rewritten because deposits pin commit SHAs.
sketchtext/, source.json, MANIFEST stay; original/ moves; manifests still hash the heavy repo. Split forward, never rewrite.
blocksThird-party harvest — the redundancy fix.
Assign resolution routes to 164 conditions
RESOLUTION-ROUTESundeposited
requiresreading · medium
whyMore than a third of registered falsification conditions do not state HOW they would resolve. A condition without a route is a gesture.
sketchTriage the 164; assign or mark unresolvable.
blocksThe ledger's usefulness.